On April 1, Arsenal appeared to be cruising towards their first Premier League title since the legendary 2003-04 "Invincibles" season. The Gunners were nine points clear of Manchester City at the top of the table with only seven games left to play, and they were -1400 for the championship as a result, according to odds posted at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Then, Arsenal began one of the infamous April slides that have become an unfortunate hallmark of manager Mikel Arteta's tenure. First, City beat Arsenal in the Carabao Cup on March 22, after which the Gunners were eliminated from the FA Cup on April 4 via a stunning upset from Southampton. While those results did not have a direct impact on Arsenal's title hopes, disaster truly struck a week later when they lost a home league match to Bournemouth, who currently occupy the bottom half of the table.
The response from sportsbooks was swift. Coming into the weekend of April 11, the Gunners were -1000 to win the Premier League, but their loss to Bournemouth immediately demoted them to -250. It went from bad to worse when Manchester City -- nipping at Arsenal's heels in second place -- thrashed Chelsea the following day, lengthening Arsenal further to -160.
Man City's longest odds at any point this season were +700 from March 20 until Arsenal's loss. Now, the Sky Blues are +125 to win the title and will face off with the Gunners on Sunday in Manchester for what could be the match of the season.
DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello says that the book took some notable action when City was at longer odds, creating liability down the stretch.
"Man City actually is probably the worst case for us. We probably need Arsenal to hold on here," he told ESPN. "The team was a much bigger favorite at one point and now that's shrinking. So we've adjusted all the way down."
BetMGM posted even longer odds for City at +800 on March 14 and reports that they have attracted a leading 76.3% of wagers since then. However, Arsenal garnered a leading 63.3% of total handle over that same time period, balancing out a lot of the action. The book lists Manchester United -- in third place at a very distant 400-1 to win the league -- as its largest overall liability.
Should Arsenal fall short, their -1400 odds from the beginning of April would be easily the shortest for a team that ultimately failed to win the title since at least 2009-10, surpassing Man United at -556 on April 1 of the 2011-12 season, according to SportsOddsHistory.
Arsenal's inability to finish off championship seasons is well documented. Despite generally being one of the Premier League's top sides over the past four seasons, the Gunners have posted a 16-7-6 record for 55 points in April and beyond. That's actually roughly on-par on a per-game basis with the next two teams, Liverpool (57) and Newcastle United (60), who have more points with more games played.
However, Manchester City has been masterful late in the campaign, going 26-3-1 for 81 points over the last four seasons, per ESPN Research.
And so it all comes down to Sunday. DraftKings has Manchester City as a -120 favorite on the match's three-way line, with Arsenal +330 and the draw +270. The pivotal showdown should attract plenty of bettor attention.
"I expect the Sunday game to be a tremendous write for a league game. Really looking forward to that," said Avello.